Welcome to The Staff, the sister post to the Starting IX, where we’ll cover the starting rotation and a few names from the bullpen and minor leagues at-a-glance and see how they’ve done so far and what the future may hold. The rotation is chosen from Fangraphs’ Roster Resource and the bullpen and prospect names are chosen subjectively. Let’s get started! (Stats as of 7/9/21).
The Royals rotation was one of the main objectives to beef up this off-season as there are not many arms capable of going the full season with a lot of young talent quickly rising through the minors. The addition of Mike Minor and others was in hopes that the rejuvenated offense could provide enough oomph on the other side that the starters wouldn’t have to be perfect. This leads to a dependence on the bullpen, which has had its own ups and downs as we’ll discuss.
- Danny Duffy – 57 IP – 4 W – 2.53 ERA – 1.25 WHIP – 62 K
- Duffman has had lofty expectations within the organization since 2014 in his breakout year. Some health issues have kept him from becoming the true workhorse that the rotation has needed in the last few years and hasn’t been able to put it all together for a consistently great year. A FIP/xFIP/SIERA all in the high 4’s the last three years compared to high 3’s and low 4’s this year along with a 9.79 K/9 show some legitimate improvements this year. The caveat being he’s only made 11 starts this year as he was out with a forearm issue. He will start to give up a few more HRs here and there as well as strand fewer runners. Another 50-60 IP with a high 3’s ERA and another 50-60 Ks is not out of the question. Duffy is a FA next year so will likely be on the trade block this deadline and a change of scenery could hurt him if he gets dealt to a worse ballpark.
- Duffman has had lofty expectations within the organization since 2014 in his breakout year. Some health issues have kept him from becoming the true workhorse that the rotation has needed in the last few years and hasn’t been able to put it all together for a consistently great year. A FIP/xFIP/SIERA all in the high 4’s the last three years compared to high 3’s and low 4’s this year along with a 9.79 K/9 show some legitimate improvements this year. The caveat being he’s only made 11 starts this year as he was out with a forearm issue. He will start to give up a few more HRs here and there as well as strand fewer runners. Another 50-60 IP with a high 3’s ERA and another 50-60 Ks is not out of the question. Duffy is a FA next year so will likely be on the trade block this deadline and a change of scenery could hurt him if he gets dealt to a worse ballpark.
- Brad Keller – 87.1 IP – 6 W – 6.39 ERA – 1.82 WHIP – 74 K
- Keller has had the exact opposite of the kind of year he and the Royals were hoping for coming off a strong 2020. Unfortunately, there were clear signs that 2020 was a bit of a facade. A 4.82 SIERA, .233 BABIP, 5.76 K/9 and .33 HR/9 last year showed some luck and lack of true dominance compared to his 2.47 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. This year has been a true coming to form with FIP and SIERA in the high 4’s and a more normal 1.23 HR/9. Though the HR/FB % at 15 is below average and will regress a bit. A 10% barrel rate and .303 xBA and .390 xWOBA show poor contact against and he seems to be lost with how to change. Cal Eldred, pitching coach, even said as much when he said “I don’t know what to tell you” last month after conversing with Keller on what he can change. Not worth rostering at this rate.
- Keller has had the exact opposite of the kind of year he and the Royals were hoping for coming off a strong 2020. Unfortunately, there were clear signs that 2020 was a bit of a facade. A 4.82 SIERA, .233 BABIP, 5.76 K/9 and .33 HR/9 last year showed some luck and lack of true dominance compared to his 2.47 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. This year has been a true coming to form with FIP and SIERA in the high 4’s and a more normal 1.23 HR/9. Though the HR/FB % at 15 is below average and will regress a bit. A 10% barrel rate and .303 xBA and .390 xWOBA show poor contact against and he seems to be lost with how to change. Cal Eldred, pitching coach, even said as much when he said “I don’t know what to tell you” last month after conversing with Keller on what he can change. Not worth rostering at this rate.
- Mike Minor – 106.1 IP – 6 W – 5.67 ERA – 1.32 WHIP – 103 K
- Minor had a career year with the Royals in 2017 over 77.2 IP with a 2.55 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and was brought back as a familiar face to provide veteran presence and eat some innings. He’s done just that, but unfortunately, it’s come with some poor ratios as only 8 of his 19 starts has he allowed 3 ER or less. A low 4’s FIP, SIERA, and xERA show some improvement could be in the cards but don’t put too much stock into it, he should still remain a Minor part of your portfolio.
- Minor had a career year with the Royals in 2017 over 77.2 IP with a 2.55 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and was brought back as a familiar face to provide veteran presence and eat some innings. He’s done just that, but unfortunately, it’s come with some poor ratios as only 8 of his 19 starts has he allowed 3 ER or less. A low 4’s FIP, SIERA, and xERA show some improvement could be in the cards but don’t put too much stock into it, he should still remain a Minor part of your portfolio.
- Brady Singer – 85.2 IP – 3 W – 4.52 ERA – 1.48 WHIP – 91 K
- Part of the 2018 pitching mega-class for the Royals, Singer has been the first of the bunch to get a shot in the bigs. 64 innings last year and 85 so far this year show a high 3’s, low 4’s guy that K’s about a quarter of the guys he faces. A fastball/slider mix with the odd changeup thrown in, it has led some to believe he’s destined for a bullpen role if he doesn’t get the changeup to work. He will, of course, be given plenty of time to develop that third pitch as there is a dire need for starting pitching. As with Keller, the pitching development has been a problem at the major league level. Singer and his fellow 2018 classmates have all done well in the minors only to struggle at the highest level. It’ll be a wonder when/if Eldred ever gets let go and to see if the next coach can bring out the best in them.
- Part of the 2018 pitching mega-class for the Royals, Singer has been the first of the bunch to get a shot in the bigs. 64 innings last year and 85 so far this year show a high 3’s, low 4’s guy that K’s about a quarter of the guys he faces. A fastball/slider mix with the odd changeup thrown in, it has led some to believe he’s destined for a bullpen role if he doesn’t get the changeup to work. He will, of course, be given plenty of time to develop that third pitch as there is a dire need for starting pitching. As with Keller, the pitching development has been a problem at the major league level. Singer and his fellow 2018 classmates have all done well in the minors only to struggle at the highest level. It’ll be a wonder when/if Eldred ever gets let go and to see if the next coach can bring out the best in them.
- Kris Bubic – 56.2 IP – 2 W – 5.40 ERA – 1.59 WHIP – 48 K
- Debuting a week after Singer last year, he got 50 innings in to the tune of mid 4’s FIP/SIERA and a 22% K rate. This year has been much of the same, but worse: xFIP and SIERA around 5, 19% K rate, walks up to almost 5 per 9. A 3-pitch mix with below average velocity on both FB and changeup and well below average spin rates have led to 45% hard hit rate, .373 xWOBA, and a .508 xSLG. He’s been relegated to the bullpen for now and will get another shot at the rotation in the future alongside his draft classmates.
Bullpen:
- Scott Barlow – The best reliever so far this year with a 2.95 ERA and 32.6% K rate, he’s been in the mix for saves as part of Matheny’s committee. With great whiff/chase rates and xStats, he’s the one to have.
- Josh Staumont – The flamethrower of the bullpen was expected to take over the closer role as he was the best at the time but injuries came to town and has thrown those plans for a loop. After a strong 2020, he’s not the one to own in the pen, Barlow or Holland will offer better opportunities for saves.
- Daniel Lynch – Lynch got absolutely scorched in his first appearances in the bigs but has worked on fixing his pitching tipping and has continued to struggle in AAA. It may be another year before he begins to put it together again.
- Jakob Junis – Back and forth between the rotation and bullpen as a long reliever the past few years, he was the odd man out with all the young blood call-ups. As the current rotation has soured, he could see another opportunity to make his stake to stay there.
- Alec Marsh – A sneaky prospect starting to get a little more recognition after jumping to AA from rookie ball in 2019, his 4.97 ERA in 25 innings is a product of a .348 BABIP and 21.1% HR/FB rate. His eye-popping 39.6% K rate shows tremendous stuff, but a 12.3% BB rate shows some control issues that still need some work.
- Asa Lacy – 45 innings in high-A after being drafted #4 overall last year, he’s shown, like Marsh, great K’s but poor control. Once he gets some semblance of control, he should move up quickly and debut late next year or early 2023.
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