Dunning-Kluber Effect 2022

In this series, I take a page from Big Magoo at Razzball and attempt to find some breakout pitchers akin to Corey Kluber in 2013.

To begin, the criteria for this type of breakout uses the following:

• K/9 (2022 avg. 8.61) – ability to miss bats; we want this to be > 9.
• SwStr% (2022 avg. 11.2%) – need to have good enough stuff to make batters want to swing; looking for > 12%.
• GB% (2022 avg. 43.2%) – damage is most limited when balls are kept on the ground; using 44% as cutoff.
• K/BB (2022 avg. 2.61) – allowing free passes only sets yourself up for disaster, we need some control; have to have more than a 3 here.
  • I’ve included CSW% from the folks at PitcherList (2022 avg. – 27.8%, Kluber 2013 – 29.8%) due to its strong predictive power, however, it is not part of the original Kluber breakout criteria.

Name	Team	GS	IP	K/9	SwStr%	CSW%	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	vFA (pi)	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP
Corbin Burnes	MIL	47	270.1	12.58	16.3%	33.0%	2.2	0.8	0.302	78.60%	48.40%	12.30%	95.1	2.76	–	2.37	2.47
Tyler Glasnow	TBR	37	206	12.67	14.8%	32.9%	2.75	1.09	0.263	81.90%	45.00%	15.20%	97.2	2.80	–	2.87	2.78
Shane Bieber	CLE	67	419	11.64	15.0%	32.5%	2.21	1.12	0.298	79.40%	44.50%	14.90%	93.2	3.01	–	3.03	2.96
Tanner Houck	BOS	20	92.1	10.43	12.1%	28.9%	3.02	0.49	0.300	70.50%	48.00%	7.60%	94.5	3.22	–	2.85	3.37
Shane McClanahan	TBR	31	155.2	10.87	15.1%	32.3%	2.66	1.1	0.319	79.20%	47.90%	16.50%	96.9	3.35	–	3.27	2.94
Frankie Montas	OAK	66	379	9.76	12.7%	28.9%	2.73	1.02	0.295	73.40%	44.40%	12.40%	96.5	3.54	–	3.50	3.66
Alex Wood	SF	35	179.1	9.43	12.2%	30.9%	2.56	1.36	0.306	72.50%	48.20%	19.00%	90.1	4.42	–	4.18	3.67
Huascar Ynoa	ATL	24	109.1	9.71	12.7%	29.3%	3.05	1.48	0.296	67.90%	48.80%	19.80%	96.4	5.19	–	4.33	3.65

When we go back to 2019, including this year’s data, we find 8 names. A few names everyone knows, a rising star, and a couple that have begun to come around.

• Burnes had a wondrous 2021 going 167 IP with a 2.43 ERA and winning the Cy Young along the way. It’s no surprise that he is keeping it up in 2022 continuing to dominate anyone thrown at him leading this group in SwStr%, CSW%, ERA, FIP, and xFIP. 2019 was not kind to him, but really started his breakout in the shortened 2020 season.
• Glasnow was certainly on his way to making a case for AL Cy Young in 2021 before going down with Tommy John. Injury issues have plagued him his whole career but has found his next gear with Tampa and should rejoin the Cy conversation once he gets back.
• Bieber is another Cy winner in this group in 2020 where he had an otherworldly 1.63 ERA. He had his true breakout in 2019 and has had some velocity concerns this year that have prevented him from maximizing his strikeouts, he’s one to watch for any subtle improvement to rebound to his top tier status.
• Houck, the first of the new faces, has been a reliever transitioned to a starter and now seemingly back to the bullpen. His wicked slider brought him to the forefront of draft prep this year but has shown control issues that have limited his ceiling so far. Likely destined to stay in the bullpen, he’s a lower priority on the watch list.
• McClanahan is the rising star to me out of this group. Bursting on to the scene in 2021 in 123 IP with a 3.43 ERA and a 10.29 K/9 he’s only improved in every regard so far this year in just over 30 IP. A high 90’s fastball and incredible slider gets him a K 36.7% of the time while only handing out a walk 7% of the time. Has some issues with game length and gives up a lot of hard contact but he is the real deal.
• Montas is another candidate that has arguably already broken out with a great 2019, bad 2020, then recovery in 2021 with over 180 IP of 3.37 ERA ball. The split finger hurler garners loads of whiffs and is one to keep an eye on where he may end up at the trade deadline as Oakland will likely continue their fire sale.
• Wood I let slip in as he turned 31 this year, he might deserve to be dropped if we want to be strict. He had a good stretch going in LA with the Dodgers, struggled in 2019 and 2020 in CIN then back to LA, and has since found his stride again in SF. At this point we know he’s a mid 3 ERA and about a K/IP.
• Ynoa is the youngest on the list at 23, about to be 24, and has been struggling to stick in the majors. He’s been back and forth to AAA and can’t get below a 4 ERA. If we are looking for the true under the radar breakout, he is on that shortlist.

Name	Team	GS	IP	K/9	SwStr%	CSW%	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	vFA (pi)	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP
Corbin Burnes	MIL	6	38.2	11.64	18.5%	34.90%	1.86	1.16	0.222	92.30%	46.50%	16.10%	95.0	1.86	2.59	2.97	2.34
Dylan Cease	CHW	6	34	12.44	14.6%	29.90%	3.44	0.26	0.267	77.40%	45.30%	3.20%	96.8	2.38	1.77	1.95	2.77
Tylor Megill	NYM	6	33.1	9.72	13.3%	28.30%	2.16	0.54	0.238	77.20%	45.20%	7.10%	95.7	2.43	2.71	2.44	2.76
Kyle Wright	ATL	6	35.2	10.35	12.5%	31.50%	2.78	0.5	0.315	77.70%	48.90%	7.10%	95.4	3.03	3.20	2.71	3.01
Shane McClanahan	TBR	6	32.1	13.08	16.4%	35.80%	2.51	1.39	0.273	80.80%	59.20%	29.40%	97.6	3.06	3.02	3.13	1.81

I’ve separated out 2022 data to help scout some potential trade targets. These 5 guys are all top 25 pitchers by xWOBA this year, so they are already hot commodities. If you need some pitching help, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues, these guys could be great adds.

• Burnes is elite and shows no signs of slowing down.
• Cease seems to finally be putting it all together this year, continuing his progress from last year, but now limiting walks and home runs so far this year. Granted, his HR/FB ratio is well below league average, he is utilizing a straighter fastball and better control to induce weak contact and loads of whiffs in his secondaries, a must buy.
• Megill had a rough 90 IP last year with HR’s being his main issue. Cutting down on his walks and increasing his slider usage seems to have unlocked the next stage. Less active spin and a full tick increase on the 4-Seam has allowed him to focus up and away for righties and dropping the eye level with a sharp slider to keep things on the ground.
• Wright has made appearances over the last few years but has not pitched well when he has. This year he’s lowered his 4-Seam usage and upped his curve usage to great effect. He’s on the right track for a good year, but maybe not quite the breakout we want.
• McClanahan again is one of the best trade targets in baseball.

In conclusion, McClanahan and Cease are the best crop in the middle of a breakout, with Houck, Megill, and Wright showing potential. The other guys are well established as to who they are and should be treated as such. If you want to cast a slightly wider net, you can include 2018 data, lower the threshold for the stats, or even include relievers to find the elite setup man that could one day become a closer.