Now that the season has begun, here in the middle of week 3, some pictures are starting to form of who’s hot and who’s not. With such a small sample size, it’s easy to get swept up in the hype, rush to the wire, and add the latest flavor of the week. As many of you know, baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. It pays to pay attention to the legitimacy of these guys’ stats and act before it comes crashing down or catch a ride on the way back up for others. Here we are going to take a look at four guys to sell, if you can, and four guys to buy with better days ahead of them.
SELL –
Chas McCormick – 37 PA – .258/.361/.516 – 5/2/7/3
- Mr. McCormick came into the year projected to mostly split time in CF with Jake Meyers getting close to 400 PA. The BAT X with a line of .238/.315/.391 and 13/54/49/8. He’s obviously off to a hot start, but there isn’t much to back it up. Zero barrels on the year, Hard Hit % of 32 (below 36 league avg.), and to cap it off, a xAVG of .139 and .222 xSLG. He’s also got a .316 BABIP, which is close to average, so there isn’t even luck to be had. Try to hop off the train if you can.
Trevor Larnach – 46 PA – .308/.413/.436 – 5/1/8/0
- Larnach was a hot waiver target in week 2. He went 9 for 24 with his one HR and 5 RBI in the first 5 games. A career line of .234/.324/.377 meant that the hot start hinted at the long sought breakout as he’s been on sleeper lists for the last few years but hasn’t quite been able to figure it out. While his walk rate keeps him somewhat valuable in OBP leagues, he’s still on the way down when it comes to making contact. He strikes out at a 30% clip, and a .458 BABIP with a single barrel on the year contributes to his .225 xAVG.
Myles Straw – 46 PA – .343/.489/.400 – 7/0/4/6
- Straw has turned out to be exactly what we expected and more to start off the year. Coming out the gates blazing with 6 SB, he has surprised with the ability to make contact and get on base, though the slugging has continued to lag behind substantially. He has superb plate discipline with a 9:9 K:BB and hardly chases or whiffs. Unfortunately, the lack of hard contact (26%) is going to bring his average back down to earth, and his on-base with it. A ballooned .462 BABIP also points to regression. He will continue to steal bases at a high rate when he does get on, projected for another 25 or so.
Ty France – 52 PA – .313/.365/.500 – 10/1/6/1
Baguette Man got off to a torrid start last year as well:
- France is off to a similar start in terms of average and overall production minus the homers. A WOBA of .377 and xWOBA of .315 mean his production will continue to taper off, but will still be serviceable. If you are in roto leagues and can stomach the streaks, he could be a hold, but for any other league, consider letting go.
BUY –
MJ Melendez – 38 PA – .152/.263/.303 – 4/1/2/0
- The 24-year-old catcher is off to an abysmal start, just like most of his teammates on the Royals. He’s up to a nasty 39.5% K-rate but continuing to walk at a decent clip of 13%. The bright side is he’s absolutely smoking the ball when he gets a hold of it. 100th percentile in Barrel % and Avg Exit Velocity, and 99th percentile in Hard Hit %. There will be a time very soon that those hits start landing and the numbers align themselves.
Eddie Rosario – 29 PA – .148/.207/.185 – 2/0/0/0
- You can’t get much lower of a buy low than Rosario right now. Small sample size of 29 PA, but only 2 runs in counting stats and a whopping 4 for 27. He’s not hitting the ball hard, but he’s keeping the K-rate under control at 24% and walking just enough at 7%. An xBA of .295 and a BABIP of .200 show there to be some positive regression on the horizon, even if it may not be the most powerful.
Josh Naylor – 42 PA – .216/.286/.378 – 4/2/7/0
- Naylor has been another BABIP victim with a lowly .207, but has found a way to contribute nonetheless with a couple homers. A xSLG of .555 and an increased fly ball rate to 35% show he’s been doing a better job of getting under the ball so far and continuing to make strong contact. Projected for another 20 or so homers and around 75 RBI mean he’s got plenty left in the tank for the year.
Ryan McMahon – 41 PA – .194/.268/.444 – 4/2/5/1
- McMahon, like Melendez, is getting unlucky for how hard he is hitting the ball. 98th percentile Barrel % and 95th percentile Hard Hit % put him right up there with Melendez. He’s also striking out too much, but not quite as bad at 36%. Similar to Naylor, so far, he’s getting under the ball more with a 9% increase over his FB rate last year. He’s also pulling the ball much more, to the tune of 45%, up from 35% last year. That’ll play in Denver.
Timing the market is impossible in finance, but a lot easier in baseball when we pay attention. Toss some trade offers out to your league mates and see who you can swindle.
643 Fantasy Baseball 