Too Early 2024 -Top 12 First Base

UPDATE 10/8: Added Bryce Harper (3) and Cody Bellinger (8) after I originally chose to omit them since they are may not primarily play 1B next year. This doesn’t mean they aren’t fantasy eligibile at 1B and should be ranked accordingly.

Now that the playoffs are in full swing, we have a chance to look back at 2023 and get ahead on our 2024 rankings. We’re going to start this series off at first base and work our way around the diamond. There were a few surprises at first base this year thanks to injuries and age of old. Guys like Rhys Hoskins and Vinnie Pasquantino were out most of the year and others like Jose Abreu are just getting up there in age. The top twelve first baseman coming into 2023 ranked by Fangraphs went as such:

  1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
  2. Freddie Freeman
  3. Paul Goldschmidt
  4. Pete Alonso
  5. Matt Olson
  6. Nathaniel Lowe
  7. Jose Abreu
  8. Christian Walker
  9. Rhys Hoskins
  10. Vinnie Pasquantino
  11. Ryan Mountcastle
  12. CJ Cron

Of these twelve, only six ended up in the top 12 per the Fangraphs auction calculator. Nathaniel Lowe, Jose Abreu, Rhys Hoskins, Vinnie Pasquantino, Ryan Mountcastle, and CJ Cron fell out either due to performance or injury. The top 12 per the Fangraphs auction calculator looks like this:

  1. Freddie Freeman
  2. Bryce Harper
  3. Matt Olson
  4. Pete Alonso
  5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
  6. Paul Goldschmidt
  7. Christian Walker
  8. Cody Bellinger
  9. Yandy Diaz
  10. Luis Arraez
  11. Salvador Perez
  12. Josh Naylor

This ranking is thrown off by players that did not have first base as their primary position this year. Most notably Bryce Harper who came back from Tommy John (primarily outfield but came back to play first so he could come back from injury faster), Cody Bellinger who split time between center field and 1st, Luis Arraez who spent time at second base and Salvador Perez who was primarily a catcher.

If we adjust the ranking to show the players that primarily played first base, it looks like this:

  1. Freddie Freeman
  2. Matt Olson
  3. Pete Alonso
  4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
  5. Paul Goldschmidt
  6. Christian Walker
  7. Yandy Diaz
  8. Josh Naylor
  9. Josh Bell
  10. Jose Abreu
  11. Ryan Mountcastle
  12. Nathaniel Lowe

Spencer Torkelson and Andrew Vaughn are close behind Nathaniel Lowe. Now with this ranking in mind, we can take into consideration injuries, prospects, and gut feelings to give us this list here below (stats from 2023):

2024 Top 12 – 1B

  1. Freddie Freeman – LAD; 131/29/102/23/.331
    • What’s not to love about Mr. Freeman? A true 5 category contributor with over 230 R+RBI, almost a 30/20 season, and hitting well above .300 there’s not much more you could ask for. The only concern is he’s 34 now and will turn 35 at the end of next year. But the good thing is he has shown no sign of slowing down since he turned 30. He’s a lock for 25 home runs over 200 R+RBI and hitting around .300 in a vaunted Dodgers lineup.
  2. Matt Olson – ATL; 127/54/139/1/.283
    • We knew Olson could slug, but 54 home runs is quite a feat. Leading a historic Braves offense to 307 home runs, we can feel free to expect another 40 next year. Most of the Braves lineup surrounding him will be the same as this year so we can expect a similar number of runs and RBIs as well. With over 260 R+RBI, he is right up there with Acuna as the Brave to have. Unfortunately, he does not have Mr. Freeman’s penchant for the base paths, but a .993 OPS is a worthwhile reward. Next year we can expect similar numbers except for maybe dropping his average 10 to 20 points.
  3. Bryce Harper – PHI; 84/21/72/11/.293
    • Harper was in the midst of recovering from Tommy John and decided he can play 1B to come back faster. Boy, was that a good decision. Primarily a RF before the surgery, he had some “good” timing with Rhys Hoskins going down for the year to have a spot to take over in the infield. Everyone knows the name Bryce Harper, he’s been hyped since he was 16 years old. He’s going to give you 30+ HR, 85+ RBI, and 10+ SB to go along with a great slash line. The main knock is he chases and whiffs a lot, 21st and 11th percentile, respectively. He hits the ball hard, in the sweet spot, and in the right places while walking at an excellent 14.7% rate and limiting Ks to a stomachable 21.8%. He’ll bring 1B eligiblity into next year and we’ll have to see how the outfield shakes out next year to see if he returns to right at any point.
  4. Pete Alonso – NYM; 92/46/118/4/.217
    • If Peter Alonso is known for one thing, it’s his power. He’s almost a straight lock for 40 plus home runs, and well over 100 RBIs. The downside this year was his average at a paltry .217. His expected batting average was .244 meaning not all was lost in terms of quality of contact, but his .217 is well down from his .271 posted last year. He still slugged over 500 and had an xWOBA of .370 with a BABIP of .205. He is still mashing the ball and got unlucky in terms of balls in play. The last two years his BABIP was in the .270s so this alone should be a sign of better things to come.
  5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – TOR; 78/26/94/5/.264
    • Vlad had big expectations coming into this year, as did everyone else on the Blue Jays. It wasn’t the worst year by any means, but it was a disappointing year. After hitting over thirty home runs last year and 48 the year before, we were expecting Vlad to at least clear 30 again this year while contributing to what should have been a scary Toronto offense. The team was 12th by xWOBA to finish 2023 trailing teams like the Cardinals, Twins, and Cubs. His quality of contact remains excellent with an expected batting average of .291 and an xWOBA of .374. He’s also 89th percentile in hard hit percent and 91st percentile on average exit velocity. Perhaps some of the changes to Roger center could explain part of the decline as he hit .238/.324/.391 at home versus .289/.360/.494 in away games. I’m still in on Vlad because he’s too young and too talented to give up on just yet.
  6. Paul Goldschmidt – STL; /89/25/80/11/.268
    • Being 35 years old isn’t the end of the world but it’s not the greatest thing in the world of baseball. It’s starting to seem like father time is coming for Paul. Last year, he was able to hit .317 but with an expected batting average of .261 we knew it wasn’t going to last. This year confirmed it when he hit .268 with an expected batting average of .267 and struck out more than he has since 2019 when he joined St. Louis. He still contributed valiantly to home runs and stolen bases, but the runs and RBIs were down from over 100 in each category last year. Goldschmidt has been up there in the same conversations as Freddie Freeman, posting thirty home runs and ten plus steals while hitting .300, but after so much time your body begins to betray you.
  7. Christian Walker – ARI; 86/33/103/11/.258
    • I was not in on Christian Walker last year, nor was I in on him this year, but he has proved me wrong. Back-to-back years of 85 runs, over thirty home runs, around >90 RBIs with a few stolen bases and hitting .250 with data to back it up is a solid recipe for success. His statcast numbers were better overall last year but he remains consistent and will be a solid option moving forward until father time takes its toll.
  8. Cody Bellinger – CHC; 95/26/97/20/.307
    • Bellinger has had quite the career so far. His first three years in the league as a Dodger he won Rookie of the Year and an MVP. The three years following, he was one of the worst hitters in baseball, mediocre, and now back to stardom with a resurgent 20/20 year with the cubs while hitting .307. Now, his expected stats do show some regression coming, namely in his slugging which had a difference of 75 points. His BABIP was normal at .319, it’s the quality of contact that will be the source of regression. He had a hard-hit % of only 31.4, good for 10th percentile and had a low average exit velocity of 87.9 mph, good for 22nd percentile. He is a great fielder and shows good speed so the power and average may not return to this level, but he will be a good option moving forward if the changes he made this year can be sustained. Good to have him back.
  9. Josh Naylor – CLE; 52/17/97/10/.308
    • Naylor is one of those guys that I have had a gut feeling on for the last few years. He’s just a solid all-around contributor except for the runs category thanks to Cleveland’s putrid lineup. He’s almost like Paul Goldschmidt and Freddie Freeman lite getting you around 20 home runs, ~80 RBIs and nearly 10 stolen bases while hitting close to .300. He has solid plate discipline with a 7.1% walk rate for his career and he does not strike out nearly as much as his contemporaries at only 13.7% this year and a career 16.5% rate. I believe he will continue to build on what he accomplished this year and could push a 25/15 season next year if he stays healthy.
  10. Yandy Diaz – TBR; 95/22/78/0/.330
    • Yandy had one of those years that make you go, “who?”. He’s been with the Rays for 5 years now and hasn’t been anything special until he was able to put it together this year. Two of the last three years he hit close to .300 but had nothing else to show for it aside from 13 homers in 2021. In the fantasy community, people started talking about how he needed to lift the ball more to be productive, and he did just that this year leading to his 22-homer campaign. This year did not, however, come without some luck to the tune of a .367 BABIP compared to his career .326 and struggles to consistently lift the ball. He, like so many other Rays, started out hot then his FB% tailed off dramatically after 20 games and didn’t come back up until the second half to stabilize at around 29%. If he can keep up his quality contact and continue to lift the ball, we could see an easy repeat of this year and maybe more.
  11. Spencer Torkelson – DET; 88/31/94/3/.233
    • Torkelson had a year that was leaps and bounds ahead of where he was last year and still has room for improvement. After hitting just .203 last year with only eight home runs and 28 RBIs, to turn around and hit over 30 this year is finally getting in line with the expectations after being one of the best college hitters of all time and being a “can’t-miss” prospect. His slash line went from .203/.285/.319 to .233/.313/.446 with a 15 point improvement in BABIP and keeping his solid plate discipline at around a 9% walk rate and 25% K rate. The expected stats show a 34 point slugging difference and a 23 point WOBA difference and he increased his barrel % from 8 to 14, meaning the contact has been good enough that with some extra balls going his way next year, he’ll be off to the races. The main concern is the whiffs and struggles with slider/changeup but let’s see if another off season can make the difference.
  12. Vinnie Pasquantino – KC; 24/9/26/0/.247
    • I’m a hometown fan of the Royals, but I’ve got some cold water for Vinnie. That’s shoulder surgery that kept him out for most of the year. He tore his labrum in his leading shoulder for his swing, an injury that can easily sap power. The good news is that a shoulder injury doesn’t change his eye at the plate. He is one of the best add limiting whiffs and keeping his strikeout rate down. Last year he didn’t qualify but he was near the top in several batted ball quality metrics such as xWOBA, expected batting average and hard-hit percentage. Before his surgery, his barrel rate was even lower than it was last year, which was already middling, and chased the most in his career. He is still young and one of the better hitters in the Royals lineup so he will get plenty of opportunity, but I am skeptical of the shoulder injury and its impact.

Honorable Mention:

With the addition of Harper and Bellinger, Casas and Lowe were the first out. I’ve already gotten flak about Casas being too low, and I may end up moving him up as the off-season progresses, but for now, he’s relegated.

  • Triston Casas – BOS; /66/24/65/0/.263
    • Casas had a year that was a tale of two halves. In the first half he hit .225/.330/.398 with 9 HR, 26% K-rate, and a 97 wRC+ (100 being league average). In the second half he hit .317/.414/.617 with 15 HR, 23.7 K%, and a 174 wRC+. He destroyed the baseball and had some help with a .365 BABIP, but a .300 ISO and 1.031 OPS speak for itself. His hit tool has always been a question and he is only 23 years old so there is time for further improvement. He is swinging more and more aggressively as his First Pitch Swing% went from 23.2 to 27 percent this year while his overall swing percentage went from 37.9 to 43.6, a noticeable jump. He struggles in the shadow zone (near the edges) so if pitchers can show great command, he can be picked apart. We will have to see if he trades some of his patience for aggression to rack up even more stats.
  • Nathaniel Lowe – TEX; 89/17/82/1
    • Lowe has only gotten worse in just about every category since last year. His R and RBI are similar, but this is likely more thanks to being in the dangerous Rangers lineup than it is from his own accord. His AVG, SLG, WOBA, wRC+, HR, and Barrel% are all way down. From last year to this year, he has seemed to have trade quality of contact for plate discipline as he was great at not chasing and had a 90th percentile 12.8 BB%. He hit 10 fewer HR, slugged 78 points lower, and dropped his hard-hit rate by 3 points. In fantasy, you must hit to be considered for a starting first base job, just like real life, but Mr. Lowe is on the cusp of being let go.
  • Bryce Harper would be number 3 for me if I could say for sure he was going to play first next year. He played 36 games there this year as he came back from Tommy John he underwent last year, but Philly already has Castellanos, Marsh, Schwarber, Pache, and Rojas to take OF at-bats. For now, I’m going to put him in RF where he has played the most the last several years.  

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