Dunning-Kluber Effect 2024

Corey Kluber broke out onto the scene in 2013. Many others, myself included, have looked for a set of statistics that could predict the next Kluber breakout. I’m not sure if he was first, but Big Magoo at Razzball made a valiant early effort. I wrote about it early in the 2022 season here, but I’m going to spruce it up a bit this time, modernize it a bit.

The original criteria was as follows:

• K/9 > 9
• SwStr% > 12
• GB% > 44
• K/BB > 3

In 2022, I included called strikes + whiffs percentage (CSW%) from the folks at PitcherList due to it’s predictive nature. This year, I’ll switch it up so we use K-BB% instead of K/BB or K/9 as it is a simpler and better as the per-inning metrics can be hiding all sorts of other damage underneath.

I’ll also be adding in Hard Hit % so we can take into account some quality of contact as well. Even if we are keeping the ball on the ground, it’s bound to do damage eventually if they’re getting smoked.

This leaves us with the following criteria for 2024:

• K-BB% > 14%
• SwStr% > 12%
• GB% > 44%
• CSW% > 30%
• Hard Hit % < 39%

Without further ado, here are our candidates with a minimum of 100 innings pitched in 2023. We are looking for starters, after all.

Name	Team	K-BB%	SwStr%	GB%	CSW%	Hard Hit %
Shohei Ohtani	LAA	21	13	45	30	35
Pablo Lopez	MIN	23	15	45	30	35
Blake Snell	SDP	18	15	44	31	34
Nick Martinez	SDP	14	13	54	30	29

That is a small group, and three of them are well known names that need no introduction. Nick Martinez, on the other hand, is quite the surprise. The 33-year-old debuted with Texas in 2014, struggled for a few years, and wound up in Japan from 2018-2021, signing back into the MLB with the Padres in 2022.

He just signed a new two-year deal with the Cincinnati Reds after giving the Padres two years of ~3.45 ERA ball. This year, and last, ERA estimators such as SIERA and FIP had him being closer to a 4.00 ERA pitcher. The last two years, he has been excellent at inducing chases and keeping his average exit velocity down while being a ground-ball machine.

He’s not going to overwhelm you with velocity, only averaging about 93 mph on his fastball. His premier weapon is his changeup boasting a +11 run value, 46% whiff rate, and a paltry .202 xWOBA against.

With his age and now being in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball, I’m not convinced that the level of success he’s experienced in the last two years will continue. He has shown he has the ingredients, given he fits these criteria, but the ceiling is too low to consider reaching for him in drafts.

Now, one name is not much to go off of so I wanted to lower the innings threshold a bit. Bringing down the minimum to 80 innings, we get two more names. One more name that may be fitting for a breakout candidate, even on a small scale, and one guy well on his way to the hall of fame.

Name	Team	K-BB%	SwStr%	GB%	CSW%	Hard Hit%
Tyler Holton	DET	17	12	46	30	32
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	19	13	48	30	39

Tyler Holton, 27, of the Detroit Tigers was first brought to my attention by Alex Chamberlain on Twitter a few weeks ago. He polled to ask if he was rostered and only 8.5% of responses had him rostered. Granted, Holton is not a starter and continues to project as a long reliever, but on the off-chance he does get a chance to start, he is on the right path.

Just like Martinez, he’s not going to blow it by you with a 91 mph fastball. That doesn’t mean his fastball isn’t valuable as it had a +9 run value with an xSLG of just .373 against. He doesn’t walk anyone and is in the 93rd percentile of average EV. He was a top-75 pitcher last year and it would be a mistake to ignore him at this point. There is tons of value in non-closer relievers, but that is a topic for another day.

In conclusion, there wasn’t much activity with the Kluber criteria in 2023. Nick Martinez and Tyler Holton were the only non-household names to be found, and they aren’t slated to set the world on fire. They did find themselves in good company, nonetheless. Maybe 2024 will have another can of worms for us to open up.