Too Early 2024 – Top 12 Second Base

Moving right along the infield from first to second base, we are met with some familiar faces, some new ones, and an MVP candidate from the top rope. Names like Marcus Semien, Gleyber Torres, and Ozzie Albies did what they were projected to do. Guys like Nico Hoerner and Bryson Stott went above and beyond their expectations this year. And then there was Mookie. Let’s jump into it! This ranking is for traditional 5×5 categories.

2024 Top 12-Second Basemen:

  1. Mookie Betts, 31 – LAD; .307/.408/.579 – 126/39/107/14 in 693 PA
    • What is there to even left to say about Mookie? While this year may not have been as stat stuffing as his 2018 campaign where he went .346/.438/.640 with 129/32/80/30, he certainly came close. A five-category contributor with excellent plate discipline, quality of contact, and solid defense, he’s a no-brainer.
  2. Ozzie Albies, 26 – ATL; .280/.336/.513 – 96/33/109/13 in 660 PA
    • The young star alongside Ronald Acuna Jr. in Atlanta has had high expectations since he signed a 7yr/$35 million deal in 2019. Atlanta showed commitment to their young core and so far, they’ve returned the favor in spades. Ozzie has shown more power than most anticipated when he came up while maintaining a solid .273 career avg. This year was a return to form for him after an injury-riddled 2022. He hits the ball hard enough to get through gaps and does a great job of hitting the sweet spot (launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees) at a 37.4% clip. I anticipate Albies continuing this level of production as he enters his prime.  
  3. Marcus Semien, 33 – TEX; .276/.348/.478 – 122/29/100/14 in 753 PA
    • The slugging second basemen in Texas signed a huge deal last year that keeps him in Texas alongside Corey Seager for many years to come. He has made 700 plate appearances 5 of the last 6 years (2020 shenanigans) and has hit more than 26 homers in each of those seasons. He will be at the top of a potent Rangers lineup and keep getting years of +200 R+RBI while throwing in 10-15 stolen bases. His biggest knock is his age and quality of contact, which he has not been known for, historically.
  4. Jose Altuve, 33 – HOU; .311/.393/.522 – 76/17/51/14 in 410 PA
    • Altuve has been doing this a while now and has been a consistent stat-grabbing presence atop the Houston lineup. He doesn’t play nearly as much as our previously mentioned Semien, only averaging 125 games the last three years thanks to a hand injury this year. In that limited time, though, he gets you 25-30 home runs with +150 R+RBI and (more recently) ~15 stolen bases. He doesn’t run nearly as much as he used to, but that’s to be expected with age. His expected batting average this year was 53 points below his actual and expected slugging 98 points below. The plate discipline is still there and with the new rules, the steals should stay, but don’t expect 30 homers again.
  5. Gleyber Torres, 26 – NYY; .273/.347/.453 – 90/25/68/13 in 672 PA
    • Pre-season projections were very close on Gleyber’s HR, RBI, and SB while underestimating his AVG, and PA. It was a very similar season to last year as well in all but R. His expected stats all show a little positive regression and are close in value, meaning that this year is not attributed to luck or many other outside factors. He has good plate discipline and could barrel the ball a little more frequently, but not a huge knock given we are getting 20-25 HR. A solid contribution in all five categories is worth the five-spot going into 2024 when he’ll be 27 and in his prime.
  6. Ketel Marte, 29 (few days from 30) – ARI; .276/.358/.485 – 94/25/82/8 in 558 PA
    • Ketel was coming off a down 2022 and a disappointing 2021 where he was hitting well and injury derailed a good season, so it was almost surprising to see some power return to the tune of 25 long balls this year. It wasn’t quite his 2019 where he hit 32 homers while also hitting .329, but .276 this year is not terrible. Arizona was hot through June, went on a slide, then turned on the jets again to make the Wild Card which allowed Marte to get to 94 runs, only three away from his career high in 2019. He out hit all pre-season projections, and I think he will find an in-between his pre-season projections and final results as he crests the hill of his prime.
  7. Jazz Chisholm Jr., 25 – MIA; .250/.304/.457 – 50/19/51/22 in 383 PA
    • Jazz is a polarizing player in that the talent is visible, but he can’t manage to stay on the field. In 383 plate appearances, he almost had a 20/20 season and over a full 650 plate appearances, that’s close to 30/30. He hits the ball harder than most 2B but has terrible launch angle, whiffs and strikes out tons. With an expected batting average and slugging 20 points lower than his actual, the line comes down and is not encouraging. If you are willing to take the risk on the 30/30 upside, have at it.
  8. Zack Gelof, 23 (soon to be 24) – OAK; .267/.337/.504 – 40/14/32/14 in 300 PA
    • Oakland has been the land of nothingness in their relocation debacle, should they stay or should they go thing. Gelof is a bright spot in Oakland (may have to compete with Vegas lights soon) as he burst onto the scene with a 14/14 rookie campaign. ZIPS was the most aggressive pre-season projection projecting him for 399 PA hitting .217 with 43/11/38/6. He beat those projections, to say the least. No one will be pressing him for playing time next year as Oakland will likely be another bottom feeder if not the worst team in the league. His biggest knock is the whiffs and K-rate, which will almost always be a challenge for rookies adjusting to major league competition. He had 20 steals in as many PA in AAA this year, so I’d expect the steals to continue in the majors next year. 20/30 is easily in the realm of possibility, but the average may suffer closer to .230.
  9. Edouard Julien, 24 – MIN; .263/.381/.459 – 60/16/37/3 in 408 PA
    • Another rookie, this time in the Twin Cities, that has exciting potential. Julien hits the ball much harder than Gelof and has just as poor whiffs and K-rate. However, he has 100th percentile chase % and 98th percentile BB% at 15.7%. He will be a better play in OBP leagues than AVG. He also has similar drops in expected average, slugging, and WOBA as Gelof, so he may not come out of the gates hot next year, but 20/10 kind of year with an OBP of around .370 isn’t out of the question.
  10. Muncy, 33 – LAD; .212/.333/.475 – 95/36/105/1 in 579 PA
    • Muncy is what Joey Gallo wishes he could be, a +30 HR hitter while hitting above the Mendoza line. He mostly spends time at third, but snuck in 25 games at 2B this year to become eligible next year. He will be an eyesore in AVG leagues, and about average in OBP while giving you homers and +180 R+RBI while hitting in the stacked Dodgers lineup. The barrel rate and exit velocities are great, and he pulled the ball over half the time he made contact, leading to most of his home runs being on the pull side. A solid backend option if you miss out on the top end.
  11. Arraez, 26 – MIA – .354/.393/.469 – 71/10/69/3 in 617 PA
    • A hitting machine that is in an annual run for the batting title, Arraez gives you nothing much else. He hardly walks or strikes out and being atop the Miami lineup he won’t get you any RBI and limited runs due to their bottom-5 offense. He doesn’t steal, and he was lucky to hit 10 home runs this year. He’s a safe anchor for AVG, but doesn’t offer much upside.
  12. India, 26 – CIN – .244/.338/.407 – 78/17/61/14 in 529 PA
    • I saw an article earlier this year that pegged India as the most average hitter in the league and that is exactly the feeling you get when you see the stat line. A 99 wRC+ (where 100 is average) backs that up as well as his slash line within 4 points on average, 18 points in OBP, and 7 points in slugging compared to league average. He doesn’t wow you with any tools, but he’s a solid contributor all around pushing 15/15 as long as he stays healthy. The only thing he’s elite on is his chase % at 19.6%, good for 93rd percentile. There is upside with other rookies or prospects that could easily outshine him next year, but if you need a safe option for production, India’s your guy.

Second base is a bit top-heavy but generally solid all around. Some guys may make the jump to make it not so top-heavy and others may age out or lose eligibility quickly. Justin Foscue (TEX) and Nick Loftin (KC) are a couple of names that may make a name for themselves this year, like Zack Gelof and Edouard Julien.

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